Wednesday, 22 December 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (5, 11, 35) with the draw of 24 November 2010 — its closest relative in 101 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 December 2010): 5 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 109 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

45 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 32% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.