Star 10

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/10 · Oct 2014 – Mar 2022 rules — 389 draws, 2 from 1–10 (an earlier era).

71times drawn · chance expected 78 −0.86σ

5draws waiting · a wait this long: 41% for any number

5.2average wait between appearances · chance says 5.0

30longest completed wait · 10% chance of one at least that long

10 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 71 times in 389 draws against 77.8 expected, −0.86σ. Each draw is independent: after 5 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 10, draw by draw

Drawn 71 times in 389 draws · average wait 5.2 draws · longest completed wait 30 · waiting 5 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 10 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest0 · chance 0.0
2nd smallest71 · chance 71.0

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 7.9 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

5 9 7 8 2 4

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 9 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 10 is picked about 1.41× as often as an indifferent choice — 5th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Round numbers (multiples of 10) ×1.05

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 10 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-02-11	1	2nd	3 10
2022-02-04	7	2nd	9 10
2021-12-17	12	2nd	1 10
2021-09-24	2	2nd	5 10
2021-09-10	1	2nd	5 10
2021-09-03	2	2nd	4 10
2021-08-20

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 10 is drawn with probability 2/10 tonight whatever it did last week.

2019-12-13	5	2nd	5 10
2019-11-08	10	2nd	4 10
2019-08-30	3	2nd	3 10
2019-08-09	1	2nd	9 10
2019-08-02	4	2nd	9 10
2019-07-05	3	2nd	6 10
2019-06-14	16	2nd	2 10
2019-02-22	8	2nd	8 10
2018-12-28	1	2nd	7 10
2018-12-21	1	2nd	2 10
2018-12-14	3	2nd	9 10
2018-11-23	3	2nd	5 10
2018-11-02	1	2nd	9 10
2018-10-26	4	2nd	4 10
2018-09-28	1	2nd	6 10
2018-09-21	14	2nd	2 10
2018-06-15	1	2nd	3 10
2018-06-08	4	2nd	9 10
2018-05-11	2	2nd	5 10
2018-04-27	2	2nd	9 10
2018-04-13	3	2nd	7 10
2018-03-23	4	2nd	1 10
2018-02-23	1	2nd	4 10
2018-02-16	6	2nd	9 10
2018-01-05	14	2nd	7 10
2017-09-29	30	2nd	7 10
2017-03-03	12	2nd	2 10
2016-12-09	5	2nd	2 10
2016-11-04	5	2nd	2 10
2016-09-30	3	2nd	8 10
2016-09-09	3	2nd	6 10
2016-08-19	3	2nd	6 10
2016-07-29	3	2nd	5 10
2016-07-08	4	2nd	5 10
2016-06-10	4	2nd	8 10
2016-05-13	1	2nd	1 10
2016-05-06	1	2nd	6 10
2016-04-29	4	2nd	2 10
2016-04-01	4	2nd	8 10
2016-03-04	1	2nd	3 10
2016-02-26	11	2nd	7 10
2015-12-11	4	2nd	8 10
2015-11-13	21	2nd	3 10
2015-06-19	5	2nd	5 10
2015-05-15	11	2nd	9 10
2015-02-27	3	2nd	8 10
2015-02-06	—	2nd	5 10