Loading…

Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

Eurojackpot · every number · star deck

Star 8

In Eurojackpot under the 5/50 + 2/10 · Oct 2014 – Mar 2022 rules — 389 draws, 2 from 1–10 (an earlier era).

85times drawn · chance expected 78 +0.91σ

1draws waiting · a wait this long: >99% for any number

4.6average wait between appearances · chance says 5.0

19longest completed wait · 78% chance of one at least that long

8 is drawn as often as chance explains

Drawn 85 times in 389 draws against 77.8 expected, +0.91σ. Each draw is independent: after 1 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.

Number 8, draw by draw

Drawn 85 times in 389 draws · average wait 4.6 draws · longest completed wait 19 · waiting 1 draws now

a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap

Where it lands in a sorted draw

Sort a draw and 8 has a favourite seat — chance gives a large number the high positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.

1st smallest20 · chance 18.9
2nd smallest65 · chance 66.1

Every position’s lane →

The company it keeps

Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 9.4 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.

4 6 7 9 1 3

It has shared a draw with every one of the other 9 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →

How many people play it

Under the crowd model, 8 is picked about 1.48× as often as an indifferent choice — 2nd most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.

Numbers 1–31 — the birthday zone ×1.22
Numbers 1–12 — day and month overlap ×1.10
Culturally lucky numbers 3, 8, 9 ×1.10

The model and its sources → · What people believe about 8 →

Every draw it appeared in

Date	Wait	Position	The draw
2022-03-11	10	1st	8 9
2021-12-31	1	2nd	6 8
2021-12-24	2	1st	8 9
2021-12-10	1	2nd	5 8
2021-12-03	5	2nd	6 8
2021-10-29	3	2nd	4 8
2021-10-08	1	2nd	6 8
2021-10-01	6	2nd	4 8
2021-08-20	6	1st	8 10
2021-07-09	2	1st	8 9
2021-06-25	2	2nd	1 8
2021-06-11	2	1st	8 9
2021-05-28	9	2nd	3 8
2021-03-26	1	2nd	1 8
2021-03-19	1	1st	8 9
2021-03-12	6	2nd	5 8
2021-01-29	3	2nd	4 8
2021-01-08	3	1st	8 9
2020-12-18	4	2nd	5 8
2020-11-20	6	2nd	7 8
2020-10-09	3	2nd	1 8
2020-09-18	8	2nd	7 8
2020-07-24	6	2nd	2 8
2020-06-12	1	2nd	2 8

The other 61 appearances

2020-06-05	3	2nd	1 8
2020-05-15	1	1st	8 10
2020-05-08	5	1st	8 9
2020-04-03	1	1st	8 10
2020-03-27	2	2nd	3 8
2020-03-13	15	2nd	7 8
2019-11-29	8	2nd	6 8
2019-10-04	2	2nd	7 8
2019-09-20	19	2nd	4 8
2019-05-10	2	2nd	3 8
2019-04-26	2	2nd	4 8
2019-04-12	2	2nd	4 8
2019-03-29	5	1st	8 9
2019-02-22	4	1st	8 10
2019-01-25	14	2nd	4 8
2018-10-19	11	2nd	7 8
2018-08-03	1	2nd	7 8
2018-07-27	3	2nd	3 8
2018-07-06	6	2nd	5 8
2018-05-25	1	2nd	3 8
2018-05-18	6	2nd	2 8
2018-04-06	8	2nd	4 8
2018-02-09	1	2nd	4 8
2018-02-02	10	2nd	7 8
2017-11-24	2	2nd	7 8
2017-11-10	4	1st	8 9
2017-10-13	1	2nd	1 8
2017-10-06	12	2nd	1 8
2017-07-14	5	1st	8 9
2017-06-09	1	2nd	5 8
2017-06-02	4	2nd	1 8
2017-05-05	2	2nd	6 8
2017-04-21	2	2nd	6 8
2017-04-07	3	2nd	4 8
2017-03-17	1	2nd	7 8
2017-03-10	2	2nd	7 8
2017-02-24	5	2nd	6 8
2017-01-20	5	2nd	5 8
2016-12-16	5	2nd	6 8
2016-11-11	6	2nd	6 8
2016-09-30	1	1st	8 10
2016-09-23	3	2nd	5 8
2016-09-02	12	2nd	1 8
2016-06-10	10	1st	8 10
2016-04-01	8	1st	8 10
2016-02-05	4	2nd	5 8
2016-01-08	4	2nd	3 8
2015-12-11	1	1st	8 10
2015-12-04	6	2nd	2 8
2015-10-23	3	2nd	6 8
2015-10-02	5	2nd	2 8
2015-08-28	9	2nd	3 8
2015-06-26	2	2nd	1 8
2015-06-12	5	2nd	6 8
2015-05-08	3	1st	8 9
2015-04-17	7	2nd	3 8
2015-02-27	4	1st	8 10
2015-01-30	12	2nd	2 8
2014-11-07	1	2nd	4 8
2014-10-31	2	2nd	3 8
2014-10-17	—	2nd	7 8

What this cannot tell you

Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 8 is drawn with probability 2/10 tonight whatever it did last week.