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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£21,511,884
The crowdHeld 13% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 142 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 141 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 September 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 65 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 86% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 14 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 141 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (10, 23) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 20 July 2012 — its closest relative in 141 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 September 2012): 44 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 107 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →3 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈44M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 plus Bonus Ball — 1,779 winners, 17% more than the 1.5k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,666,451 | £2.70 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 974,602 | £4.60 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 279,367 | £6.00 |
| Match 3 | 125,676 | £7.60 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 56,968 | £10.40 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 73,503 | £7.70 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 4,103 | £31.40 |
| Match 4 | 3,016 | £59.90 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,779 | £102 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 105 | £1,968 |
| Match 5 | 15 | £27,551 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 9 | £137,753 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1 | £21,511,884 |