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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£44,407,072
The crowdHeld 26% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 151 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 150 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 October 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 24% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 15 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 150 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (10, 49) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 20 July 2012 — its closest relative in 150 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (12 October 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 2, 8 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 172 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 40–41. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →32 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈30M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 plus Bonus Ball — 624 winners, 40% fewer than the 1.0k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 961,153 | £3.40 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 472,929 | £6.80 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 189,755 | £6.30 |
| Match 3 | 61,853 | £11.00 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 31,724 | £13.30 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 30,309 | £13.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,996 | £46.10 |
| Match 4 | 1,267 | £102 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 624 | £207 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 57 | £2,585 |
| Match 5 | 12 | £24,557 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 3 | £294,687 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £44,407,072 |