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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£17,438,916
The crowdHeld 25% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 365 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 364 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 November 2014 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 34 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 13% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 36 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 364 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 6, 13) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 27 December 2013 — its closest relative in 364 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 83% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (31 October 2014): 13 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 3 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 63 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →26 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈32M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls — 3,520 winners, 28% more than the 2.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,064,043 | £2.70 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 624,396 | £4.50 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 206,660 | £5.00 |
| Match 3 | 84,941 | £7.00 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 44,519 | £8.30 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 50,062 | £7.10 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 3,520 | £22.90 |
| Match 4 | 2,298 | £49.20 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,334 | £84.80 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 98 | £1,320 |
| Match 5 | 11 | £23,518 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 6 | £129,351 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £17,438,916 |