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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£17,749,912
The crowdHeld 45% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 416 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 415 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 1 May 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 39 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 21% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 42 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 415 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (20, 25, 26) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 14 January 2014 — its closest relative in 415 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 86% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (28 April 2015): 26 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 10 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 93 — the 13th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20, 25–26. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →3 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈22M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 99,217 winners, 47% more than the 68k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,400,139 | £2.70 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 582,331 | £6.40 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 141,239 | £9.70 |
| Match 3 | 99,217 | £7.90 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 26,713 | £18.20 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 40,938 | £11.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,824 | £58.00 |
| Match 4 | 2,254 | £65.80 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 902 | £164 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 21 | £8,073 |
| Match 5 | 15 | £22,606 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 7 | £145,322 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £17,749,912 |