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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£15,723,801
The crowdHeld 34% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 455 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 454 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 September 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 66% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 45 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 454 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 44, 49) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 2 December 2014 — its closest relative in 454 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (11 September 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 133 — the 56th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →17 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈29M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 1,146 winners, 44% fewer than the 2.0k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 850,317 | £3.20 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 484,230 | £5.50 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 187,082 | £5.20 |
| Match 3 | 56,952 | £9.90 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 37,129 | £9.40 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 33,120 | £10.10 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2,598 | £29.30 |
| Match 4 | 1,146 | £93.10 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 681 | £157 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 45 | £2,710 |
| Match 5 | 8 | £30,486 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 6 | £121,944 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £15,723,801 |