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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£11,152,500
The crowdHeld 19% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 459 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 458 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 29 September 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 71 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 96% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 46 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 458 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 26, 29) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 22 September 2015 — its closest relative in 458 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (25 September 2015): 14 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 129 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →11 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈26M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 914,887 winners, 19% fewer than the 1.1M an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 914,887 | £3.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 497,321 | £5.40 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 165,578 | £6.00 |
| Match 3 | 67,897 | £8.40 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 32,880 | £10.80 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 36,376 | £9.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2,389 | £32.50 |
| Match 4 | 1,787 | £60.80 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 902 | £121 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 72 | £1,726 |
| Match 5 | 9 | £0.00 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 5 | £149,089 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1 | £11,152,500 |