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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£25,081,394
The crowdHeld 31% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 541 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 540 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 July 2016 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 69% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 54 of each
Times drawn before — chance expected 98 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 540 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 33, 41) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 7 July 2015 — its closest relative in 540 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 92% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (8 July 2016): 33 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 110 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →3 had not appeared for 28 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈17M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 68,552 winners, 34% more than the 51k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 956,974 | £2.40 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 416,470 | £5.60 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 106,761 | £8.00 |
| Match 3 | 68,552 | £7.10 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 20,377 | £14.90 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 29,171 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,471 | £45.10 |
| Match 4 | 1,460 | £63.60 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 630 | £147 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 42 | £2,528 |
| Match 5 | 8 | £26,539 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 3 | £0.00 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £25,081,394 |