Monday, 23 September 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 2, 21) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 April 2012 — its closest relative in 777 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 September 2013): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 71 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

36 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.