Friday, 8 January 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (21, 38, 48) with the draw of 28 November 2019 — its closest relative in 1,620 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 January 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 156 — the 81th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 37–38. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 32 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.