Friday, 6 August 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 14, 17) with the draw of 17 July 2020 — its closest relative in 1,770 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (5 August 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 125 — the 46th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.