Wednesday, 27 April 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (26, 31, 44, 48) with the draw of 22 May 2021 — its closest relative in 1,958 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 19% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 April 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 154 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

48 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.