Friday, 28 July 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 24, 38) with the draw of 15 January 2022 — its closest relative in 2,285 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (27 July 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 127 — the 49th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 36 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.