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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 21 January 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 17
  2. 31
  3. 37
  4. 38
  5. 39
  6. 6

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 23% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,286 of 3,069 under them

← 2023-01-20All recent draws2023-01-24 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed17 31 37 38 39 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 January 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

29oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 29 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 9% of every possible ticket.

  • sum100th
  • odd89th
  • low9th
  • widest gap60th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread24th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 293 of each

17280times
31310times
37271times
38286times
39

Prize breakdown · 2023-01-21

  • Lines in play≈ 2.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£833.5Kto 153k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 14lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.27

Where the money went

  • Match 318%£149.4K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£256.7K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball27%£222K
  • 5 other tiers25%£205.4K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.27 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

281times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 163 of each

6153times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,285 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (17, 37, 38, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 21 August 2021 — its closest relative in 2,285 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 49% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 January 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

162

The numbers add up to 162 — the 100th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 37–38, 38–39. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

37 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 3.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball35≈ 45 by chance£250
  • Match 4497≈ 588 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,094≈ 1.5k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,510≈ 16k by chance£10.00
  • Match 314,937≈ 19k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball51,343≈ 62k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball74,011≈ 74k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 plus Bonus Ball — 11,510 winners, 28% fewer than the 16k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball74,011£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball51,343£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,510£10.00
    Match 314,937£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,094£20.00
    Match 4497£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball35£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000