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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 16 December 2020

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 10
  3. 12
  4. 17
  5. 19
  6. 26
  7. 29

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 748 of 1,359 under them

← 2020-12-12All recent draws2020-12-19 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 10 12 17 19 26 + 2929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 December 2020 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

29oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 29 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 7% of every possible ticket.

  • sum8th
  • odd21th
  • low95th
  • widest gap12th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread19th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 112 of each

2116times
10120times
12115times
17119times
19

Prize breakdown · 2020-12-16

  • Lines in play≈ 8.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.4Mto 273k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 2.1

Where the money went

  • Match 642%NZ$1M
  • Match 419%NZ$449.8K
  • Match 3 + Bonus19%NZ$444.5K
  • 3 other tiers21%NZ$507.5K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 2.1 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

134times
26109times

Every number was expected about that many times after 747 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (10, 12, 19, 26) with the draw of 7 December 2016 — its closest relative in 747 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 December 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

86

The numbers add up to 86 — the 8th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus15≈ 13 by chanceNZ$15,259
  • Match 5481≈ 421 by chanceNZ$472
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,147≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$45.00
  • Match 417,301≈ 17k by chanceNZ$26.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus22,224≈ 22k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3231,835≈ 232k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,147 winners, 9% more than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus15NZ$15,259
    Match 5481NZ$472
    Match 4 + Bonus1,147NZ$45.00
    Match 417,301NZ$26.00
    Match 3 + Bonus22,224NZ$20.00
    Match 3231,835NZ$0.00
    Totals273,004—