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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 11 August 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 3
  2. 7
  3. 10
  4. 18
  5. 25
  6. 29
  7. 16

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 816 of 1,359 under them

← 2021-08-07All recent draws2021-08-14 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed3 7 10 18 25 29 + 1629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 August 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

38oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 38 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 19% of every possible ticket.

  • sum12th
  • odd79th
  • low79th
  • widest gap12th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread28th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 122 of each

3117times
7122times
10131times
18127times
25

Prize breakdown · 2021-08-11

  • Lines in play≈ 6.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.1Mto 216k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.7

Where the money went

  • Match 648%NZ$1M
  • Match 417%NZ$354K
  • Match 3 + Bonus17%NZ$353.5K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$394.3K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.7 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

122times
29130times

Every number was expected about that many times after 815 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (3, 7, 10, 18) with the draw of 4 July 2015 — its closest relative in 815 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 84% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 August 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

92

The numbers add up to 92 — the 12th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus18≈ 10 by chanceNZ$9,878
  • Match 5359≈ 332 by chanceNZ$491
  • Match 4 + Bonus874≈ 829 by chanceNZ$46.00
  • Match 414,161≈ 13k by chanceNZ$25.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus17,675≈ 18k by chanceNZ$20.00
  • Match 3182,803≈ 183k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈6.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 14,161 winners, 7% more than the 13k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus18NZ$9,878
    Match 5359NZ$491
    Match 4 + Bonus874NZ$46.00
    Match 414,161NZ$25.00
    Match 3 + Bonus17,675NZ$20.00
    Match 3182,803NZ$0.00
    Totals215,891—