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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 18 August 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 5
  3. 18
  4. 23
  5. 32
  6. 40
  7. 29

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 818 of 1,359 under them

← 2021-08-14All recent draws2021-08-21 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 5 18 23 32 40 + 2929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 August 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

70oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 70 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 88% of every possible ticket.

  • sum44th
  • odd50th
  • low50th
  • widest gap58th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread99th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 123 of each

1138times
5105times
18128times
23132times
32

Prize breakdown · 2021-08-18

  • Lines in play≈ 5.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.1Mto 196k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 62 winnerschance said 1.5

Where the money went

  • Match 648%NZ$1M
  • Match 417%NZ$348.8K
  • Match 3 + Bonus17%NZ$345.8K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$387.5K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 62≈ 1.5 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

120times
40123times

Every number was expected about that many times after 817 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 5 of 6 numbers (1, 5, 23, 32, 40) with the draw of 15 March 2017 — its closest relative in 817 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 4.3% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 August 2021): 23 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

119

The numbers add up to 119 — the 43th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 17% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus12≈ 9.1 by chanceNZ$14,546
  • Match 5550≈ 301 by chanceNZ$315
  • Match 4 + Bonus778≈ 753 by chanceNZ$51.00
  • Match 412,920≈ 12k by chanceNZ$27.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus15,717≈ 16k by chanceNZ$22.00
  • Match 3165,951≈ 166k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 12,920 winners, 7% more than the 12k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 62NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus12NZ$14,546
    Match 5550NZ$315
    Match 4 + Bonus778NZ$51.00
    Match 412,920NZ$27.00
    Match 3 + Bonus15,717NZ$22.00
    Match 3165,951NZ$0.00
    Totals195,930—