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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 20 October 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 3
  3. 4
  4. 7
  5. 19
  6. 31
  7. 8

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 836 of 1,359 under them

← 2021-10-16All recent draws2021-10-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 3 4 7 19 31 + 829 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 20 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

43oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 43 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 26% of every possible ticket.

  • sum1th
  • odd79th
  • low95th
  • widest gap48th
  • neighbours91th
  • spread43th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 125 of each

2127times
3119times
4117times
7124times
19

Prize breakdown · 2021-10-20

  • Lines in play≈ 22Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$5Mto 751k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 65 winnerschance said 5.8

Where the money went

  • Match 620%NZ$1M
  • Match 426%NZ$1.3M
  • Match 3 + Bonus25%NZ$1.3M
  • 3 other tiers29%NZ$1.4M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 65≈ 5.8 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

150times
31122times

Every number was expected about that many times after 835 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (3, 4, 7, 31) with the draw of 14 October 2017 — its closest relative in 835 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 October 2021): 2, 7, 19 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

66

The numbers add up to 66 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3, 3–4. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

31 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 3.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$200,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus45≈ 35 by chanceNZ$14,504
  • Match 51,179≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$549
  • Match 4 + Bonus3,598≈ 2.9k by chanceNZ$41.00
  • Match 447,157≈ 46k by chanceNZ$27.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus66,169≈ 61k by chanceNZ$19.00
  • Match 3633,069≈ 633k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈22M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 3,598 winners, 25% more than the 2.9k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 65NZ$200,000
    Match 5 + Bonus45NZ$14,504
    Match 51,179NZ$549
    Match 4 + Bonus3,598NZ$41.00
    Match 447,157NZ$27.00
    Match 3 + Bonus66,169NZ$19.00
    Match 3633,069NZ$0.00
    Totals751,222—