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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Wednesday, 17 May 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 12
  3. 13
  4. 20
  5. 23
  6. 38
  7. 36

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,000 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-05-13All recent draws2023-05-20 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 12 13 20 23 38 + 3629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 17 May 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

49oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 40% of every possible ticket.

  • sum29th
  • odd21th
  • low79th
  • widest gap74th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread87th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 150 of each

2152times
12155times
13148times
20150times
23

Prize breakdown · 2023-05-17

  • Lines in play≈ 6.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.1Mto 199k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.6

Where the money went

  • Match 647%NZ$1M
  • Match 417%NZ$363.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus17%NZ$362.5K
  • 3 other tiers19%NZ$407.4K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.6 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

167times
38137times

Every number was expected about that many times after 999 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (2, 12, 13, 23) with the draw of 21 October 2015 — its closest relative in 999 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 89% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 May 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

108

The numbers add up to 108 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 12–13. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus3≈ 9.4 by chanceNZ$61,126
  • Match 5277≈ 310 by chanceNZ$657
  • Match 4 + Bonus713≈ 776 by chanceNZ$59.00
  • Match 412,122≈ 12k by chanceNZ$30.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus14,499≈ 17k by chanceNZ$25.00
  • Match 3170,974≈ 171k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈6.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 + Bonus — 14,499 winners, 12% fewer than the 17k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus3NZ$61,126
    Match 5277NZ$657
    Match 4 + Bonus713NZ$59.00
    Match 412,122NZ$30.00
    Match 3 + Bonus14,499NZ$25.00
    Match 3170,974NZ$0.00
    Totals198,589—