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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 7 October 2023

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 5
  2. 25
  3. 28
  4. 34
  5. 36
  6. 38
  7. 15

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,041 of 1,359 under them

← 2023-10-04All recent draws2023-10-11 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed5 25 28 34 36 38 + 1529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 7 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

30oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 30 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 8% of every possible ticket.

  • sum95th
  • odd21th
  • low5th
  • widest gap94th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread69th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 156 of each

5149times
25164times
28157times
34144times
36

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-07

  • Lines in play≈ 12Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3.5Mto 399k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 64 winnerschance said 3.1

Where the money went

  • Match 629%NZ$1M
  • Match 423%NZ$792.6K
  • Match 3 + Bonus22%NZ$767.1K
  • 3 other tiers26%NZ$895K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 64≈ 3.1 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

144times
38144times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,040 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 25, 28, 38) with the draw of 5 April 2023 — its closest relative in 1,040 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 October 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

166

The numbers add up to 166 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

36 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 27% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$250,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus26≈ 19 by chanceNZ$15,527
  • Match 5566≈ 616 by chanceNZ$707
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,572≈ 1.5k by chanceNZ$58.00
  • Match 424,019≈ 25k by chanceNZ$33.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus33,350≈ 33k by chanceNZ$23.00
  • Match 3339,475≈ 339k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈12M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 5 — 566 winners, 8% fewer than the 616 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 64NZ$250,000
    Match 5 + Bonus26NZ$15,527
    Match 5566NZ$707
    Match 4 + Bonus1,572NZ$58.00
    Match 424,019NZ$33.00
    Match 3 + Bonus33,350NZ$23.00
    Match 3339,475NZ$0.00
    Totals399,012—