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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 15 November 2025

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 5
  3. 14
  4. 19
  5. 28
  6. 38
  7. 29

JackpotNZ$1,000,008

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 1,261 of 1,359 under them

← 2025-11-12All recent draws2025-11-19 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 5 14 19 28 38 + 2924 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 November 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

43oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 43 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 28% of every possible ticket.

  • sum26th
  • odd21th
  • low79th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread87th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 189 of each

2189times
5182times
14173times
19212times
28

Prize breakdown · 2025-11-15

  • Lines in play≈ 34Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$7.4Mto 1.1M winning lines
  • Won something1 in 30lines took a prize
  • Match 618 winnerschance said 8.7

Where the money went

  • Match 5 + Bonus14%NZ$1M
  • Match 428%NZ$2.1M
  • Match 3 + Bonus28%NZ$2.1M
  • 3 other tiers31%NZ$2.3M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100kPrize each
  1. Match 618≈ 8.7 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

193times
38180times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,260 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (5, 14, 19, 38) with the draw of 24 August 2024 — its closest relative in 1,260 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 November 2025): 19 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

106

The numbers add up to 106 — the 26th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$55,556
  • Match 5 + Bonus62≈ 52 by chanceNZ$16,909
  • Match 51,777≈ 1.7k by chanceNZ$585
  • Match 4 + Bonus4,196≈ 4.3k by chanceNZ$57.00
  • Match 468,364≈ 69k by chanceNZ$30.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus89,904≈ 92k by chanceNZ$23.00
  • Match 3952,797≈ 953k by chance—
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈34M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 4,196 winners, 3% fewer than the 4.3k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 618NZ$55,556
    Match 5 + Bonus62NZ$16,909
    Match 51,777NZ$585
    Match 4 + Bonus4,196NZ$57.00
    Match 468,364NZ$30.00
    Match 3 + Bonus89,904NZ$23.00
    Match 3952,797NZ$0.00
    Totals1,117,118—