Wednesday, 2 February 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 18, 29) with the draw of 27 January 2011 — its closest relative in 259 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 93% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 February 2011): 18, 28 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 98 — the 46th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 28–29. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.