Sunday, 11 August 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 3, 8, 10) with the draw of 22 December 2012 — its closest relative in 3,388 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 63% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 August 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 36 — the 0th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.