Wednesday, 12 January 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 27, 44) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 22 September 2010 — its closest relative in 107 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 46% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 January 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 129 — the 61th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 26–27. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.