Monday, 22 August 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 22, 56) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 4 August 2016 — its closest relative in 136 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 31% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 August 2016): 56, 58 carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 156 — the 53th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. No two numbers side by side. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 15% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.