Thursday, 4 April 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 2 of 5 numbers (6, 9) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 4 March 2019 — its closest relative in 409 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 April 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 61 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. Side-by-side numbers: 8–9. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.