Tuesday, 12 January 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (28, 41, 44) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 18 April 2020 — its closest relative in 995 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 January 2021): 41 carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 185 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. Side-by-side numbers: 40–41. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 35% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.