Thursday, 29 June 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 19, 25) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 18 August 2022 — its closest relative in 1,893 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 June 2023): 19, 29 carried over. Chance says 36% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 3 repeated (25% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 88 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 153. No two numbers side by side. 30% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 12 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.