Wednesday, 27 April 2011

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 8 May 2010. Chance gave a match this close a 0.2% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 April 2011): 11, 12 carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 59 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 11–12. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

29 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.