Thursday, 19 September 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 4, 9, 23) with the draw of 22 July 2016 — its closest relative in 3,433 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 September 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 47 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 8–9. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

9 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.