Thursday, 24 February 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 8, 16, 17) with the draw of 20 October 2016 — its closest relative in 4,319 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 95% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 February 2022): 17 carried over. Chance says 60% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 58 — the 10th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 83. Side-by-side numbers: 16–17. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.