Sunday, 8 July 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (21, 30, 31) with the draw of 23 May 2012 — its closest relative in 189 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 91% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 July 2012): 21 carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 116 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31, 31–32. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

32 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.