Sunday, 20 December 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (11, 14, 18, 35) with the draw of 4 October 2018 — its closest relative in 2,815 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 69% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 December 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 55% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 97 — the 57th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 93. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.