Friday, 25 December 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (2, 23, 31) with the draw of 6 November 2020 — its closest relative in 198 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 December 2020): 31 carried over. Chance says 59% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 113 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 141. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

34 had not appeared for 32 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 22% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.