Friday, 21 June 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (16, 21, 27) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 14 February 2023 — its closest relative in 225 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 June 2024): 40, 42 carried over. Chance says 59% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 0 repeated (100% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 169 — the 81th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 141. No two numbers side by side. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 37% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.