Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (11, 12, 35) with the draw of 25 November 2010 — its closest relative in 390 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 January 2011): 19 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 90 — the 33th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12, 12–13. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.