Monday, 11 July 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (31, 44, 45) with the draw of 9 July 2011 — its closest relative in 238 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 July 2011): 31, 44, 45 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 204 — the 90th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 44–45. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 71% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.