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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Thursday, 21 January 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 12
  2. 16
  3. 22
  4. 25
  5. 26
  6. 45

Jackpot$4,250,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/52 · Jan 2015 – Apr 2025draw 949 of 1,616 under them

← 2021-01-18All recent draws2021-01-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:44 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed12 16 22 25 26 4529 Aug 2026, 09:30 UTC
Drawn under earlier rules

Lotto was a 6/52 · Jan 2015 – Apr 2025 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 948 draws before it — not against today’s pool.

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 January 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

49oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 40% of every possible ticket.

  • sum36th
  • odd21th
  • low95th
  • widest gap70th
  • neighbours72th
  • spread26th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 109 of each

12102times
16134times
22107times
2594times
26

Prize breakdown · 2021-01-21

  • Lines in play≈ 706kas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out$243.7Kto 101k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 7lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 0.03

Where the money went

  • Match 411%$25.8K
  • Match 322%$53.5K
  • Match 235%$84.9K
  • 6 other tiers33%$79.5K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 0.03 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

116times
45108times

Every number was expected about that many times after 948 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (12, 16, 22, 25) with the draw of 11 March 2019 — its closest relative in 948 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 52% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 January 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

146

The numbers add up to 146 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 43% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
$4,250,000
  • Match 514≈ 9.6 by chance$1,335
  • Match 4573≈ 538 by chance$45.00
  • Match 310,708≈ 11k by chance$5.00
  • Match 284,856≈ 85k by chance$1.00
  • Match 5 + Extra Shot0$33,375
  • Match 4 + Extra Shot5$1,125
  • Match 3 + Extra Shot86$125
  • Match 2 + Extra Shot584$25.00
  • Match 1 + Extra Shot1,912$10.00
  • Match 0 + Extra Shot2,139$5.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈706k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 573 winners, 6% more than the 538 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60$4,250,000
    Match 5 + Extra Shot0$33,375
    Match 514$1,335
    Match 4 + Extra Shot5$1,125
    Match 4573$45.00
    Match 3 + Extra Shot86$125
    Match 310,708$5.00
    Match 2 + Extra Shot584$25.00
    Match 284,856$1.00
    Match 1 + Extra Shot1,912$10.00
    Match 0 + Extra Shot2,139$5.00
    Totals100,877—