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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Monday, 11 October 2021

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 3
  3. 16
  4. 17
  5. 23
  6. 31

Jackpot$3,800,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/52 · Jan 2015 – Apr 2025draw 1,062 of 1,616 under them

← 2021-10-09All recent draws2021-10-14 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:44 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 3 16 17 23 3129 Aug 2026, 09:30 UTC
Drawn under earlier rules

Lotto was a 6/52 · Jan 2015 – Apr 2025 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 1,061 draws before it — not against today’s pool.

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

26oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 26 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 5% of every possible ticket.

  • sum3th
  • odd79th
  • low95th
  • widest gap27th
  • neighbours95th
  • spread15th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 122 of each

2131times
3120times
16156times
17128times
23

Prize breakdown · 2021-10-11

  • Lines in play≈ 260kas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out$127.3Kto 38k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 7lines took a prize
  • Match 60 winnerschance said 0.01

Where the money went

  • Match 47.6%$9.7K
  • Match 317%$21.3K
  • Match 249%$62.5K
  • 6 other tiers27%$33.7K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. Match 60≈ 0.01 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

115times
31126times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,061 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (2, 16, 23, 31) with the draw of 11 January 2020 — its closest relative in 1,061 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 56% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 October 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

92

The numbers add up to 92 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 159. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3, 16–17. 47% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 3.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 21% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
$3,800,000
  • Match 54≈ 3.5 by chance$1,827
  • Match 4229≈ 198 by chance$42.50
  • Match 34,254≈ 3.9k by chance$5.00
  • Match 231,251≈ 31k by chance$2.00
  • Match 5 + Extra Shot0$45,675
  • Match 4 + Extra Shot1$1,063
  • Match 3 + Extra Shot42$125
  • Match 2 + Extra Shot294$25.00
  • Match 1 + Extra Shot859$10.00
  • Match 0 + Extra Shot837$5.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈260k lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 4,254 winners, 10% more than the 3.9k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 60$3,800,000
    Match 5 + Extra Shot0$45,675
    Match 54$1,827
    Match 4 + Extra Shot1$1,063
    Match 4229$42.50
    Match 3 + Extra Shot42$125
    Match 34,254$5.00
    Match 2 + Extra Shot294$25.00
    Match 231,251$2.00
    Match 1 + Extra Shot859$10.00
    Match 0 + Extra Shot837$5.00
    Totals37,771—