Friday, 26 May 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 28, 40) with the draw of 31 December 2016 — its closest relative in 700 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 May 2017): 36, 40 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 154 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 35–36. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.