Thursday, 11 July 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (28, 39, 45) with the draw of 25 February 2019 — its closest relative in 750 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 July 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 160 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

42 had not appeared for 34 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.