Friday, 11 September 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 20, 30) with the draw of 16 April 2020 — its closest relative in 1,178 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 September 2020): 30, 36 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 100 — the 29th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 39 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.