Saturday, 7 August 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 5, 9, 32) with the draw of 16 December 2019 — its closest relative in 1,508 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 22% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 August 2021): 6 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 53 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

1 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.