Thursday, 17 August 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 21, 45) with the draw of 26 July 2023 — its closest relative in 2,248 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 August 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 111 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 33 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.