Saturday, 20 January 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 22, 30) with the draw of 11 October 2023 — its closest relative in 2,404 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 January 2024): 2 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 113 — the 47th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.