Saturday, 4 February 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (4, 11, 12) with the draw of 2 January 2010 — its closest relative in 218 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 February 2012): 28 carried over. Chance says 57% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 99 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 147. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 23% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.