Saturday, 20 August 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (4, 16, 21) with the draw of 25 May 2022 — its closest relative in 33 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 53% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 August 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 59% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 113 — the 18th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 141. No two numbers side by side. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 24% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.