Friday, 15 December 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (4, 20, 35) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 July 2021 — its closest relative in 2,481 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 December 2023): 20 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 62 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

35 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.